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28 ott 2020

US election: three possible outcomes for your portfolio

Four years on from Donald Trump’s astonishing victory in 2016, the US is set to return to the ballot box. After that spasm of anti-establishment feeling and the rollercoaster ride of the last four years, the world is awaiting the result of the 3 November elections with bated breath. A Biden win looks likely, but a tighter-than-expected race remains plausible.

How reliable are the polls? Pollsters have had a torrid time recently, but in most previous US election campaigns they have reliably reflected the final vote – except for contests involving an outsider or a late political “surprise”. This time around, Trump is neither an outsider nor a surprise. But a tight result still can’t be ruled out. Polls are converging in several swing states, and the greater share of mail votes because of the pandemic is a wildcard. Keep an eye out for protracted legal disputes if the margins of victory are narrow.

Senate elections will be pivotal in defining the path of future US policies. Full Democrat control of Congress is probable, but is not a done deal and in any case not as likely as a Biden win. If both the Senate and the House went blue, it could pave the way for an ambitious Democrat agenda. In contrast, a split Congress would increase the chances of political deadlock.

Here are the three big “what if” US election scenarios in more detail:

risk 6

What if Biden wins with a Democratic Congress?

  • We expect a $2tn+ recovery package early next year
  • Additional massive longer-term packages focusing on healthcare, infrastructure and clean energy funded by corporate, capital and individual tax increases
  • Foreign policies would normalise with a return to a multilateral order and the repair of alliances with closest partners
  • Pressure would be maintained on China through non-trade barriers

4 investment ideas for a Biden/Democrat victory

1. Invest in a green deal – Negotiated return to the Paris Agreement, tax incentives and major spending on clean infrastructure

Lyxor S&P 500 Paris-Aligned Climate (EU PAB) (DR) UCITS ETF

2. Invest in stronger alliances – Continued US-China competition, but less trade uncertainty and stronger US-Asia Pacific alliances

Lyxor MSCI China UCITS ETF

3. Invest in inflation – Massive budget deficit would boost growth and inflation expectations, while weakening the dollar

Lyxor US$ 10Y Inflation Expectations UCITS ETF
Lyxor Core US TIPS (DR) UCITS ETF

4. Invest in a sigh of relief – Reduced policy uncertainty and fewer bilateral trade offensives, massive US fiscal expansion to benefit other regions

Lyxor MSCI World UCITS ETF

ideas for a Biden/Democrat victory

What if there’s a tight vote and a split Congress?

  • Possible legal disputes and further polarisation between US political forces, with more civil unrest
  • Greater market volatility until disputes are settled
  • Political deadlock and policy paralysis look likely if Congress also remains split
  • If Biden eventually wins without a legislative majority, we might see an intermediate $1.5tn fiscal package
  • With limited leeway to revamp taxes, the administration would concentrate on gradually tightening environmental, energy and financial regulations
  • Trade uncertainties would recede, but tariffs would not be unwound without compromises
  • Efforts to rejoin world organisations would be largely symbolic

2 investment ideas for a near “no result”

1. Invest in volatility – Heated legal disputes and civil unrest would increase uncertainty and market volatility. Risk aversion increases flows towards diversifying exposures

Lyxor FTSE USA Minimum Variance UCITS ETF
Lyxor Core US Treasury 7-10Y (DR) UCITS ETF

2. Invest in Tech – Lesser likelihood of major tech tax and ambitious anti-trust regulations, more limited fiscal expansion would favour the pandemic’s corporate “winners”

Lyxor Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF
Lyxor MSCI Digital Economy ESG Filtered (DR) UCITS ETF

2 investment ideas for a near “no result”

What if Trump wins a close-run race?

  • A more modest $1-1.5tn fiscal package looks probable, with infrastructure spending, a focus on industrial reshoring as well as on SMEs, and further tax cuts
  • Energy and healthcare deregulation would gradually continue, constrained by the legislative process
  • Competition with China would intensify, with extra tariff and tech offensives punctuated by temporary partial agreements
  • Unilateral pressures would continue, with no appetite for multilateral memberships and greater trade pressures on Europe.

2 investment ideas for a Trump turnaround

1. Invest in lower corporate margin pressure – Limited changes to the supportive corporate tax and labour wage environments, fading risk premium for the energy sector

Lyxor BofAML $ High Yield Bond UCITS ETF

2. Invest in Russia – Threat of increased sanctions under a Democrat administration fades

Lyxor MSCI Russia UCITS ETF

Risk Warning

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

Except for the United-Kingdom, where this communication is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658, this communication is issued by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS (2014/91/EU) and AIFM (2011/61/EU) Directives. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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