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13 giu 2019

The Trade War Impact Indicator

Another bout of market volatility followed hot on the heels of the latest escalation in the trade war between the US and China, but was the impact universal or did some markets fare better than others? Chanchal Samadder investigates.

The most recent period of volatility left me wondering which markets might be most vulnerable should the conflict continue, so I created my “Trade War Impact Indicator”. This simple tool combines the trade balance of the world’s 20 largest economies (in GDP terms) with the US and the economic origins of each country index’s revenues1 to create a trade impact score. The results were very interesting.


5 things to know

  • India has one of the highest revenue exposures to the US among the emerging markets, but it’s counterbalanced by a relatively small trade deficit.
  • India is less exposed to China than most of its peers and more driven by domestic demand. These factors should help insulate it from any trade-related global slowdown.
  • At the other end of the spectrum, Taiwan has a significant exposure to both the US and China and, not for the first time, looks in a precarious position.
  • Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Australia appear relatively safe, but they do generate enough revenue from China to feel the pain of any economic slowdown.
  • China itself holds a surprisingly low revenue exposure to the US and, Trump take note, scores well on the impact indicator overall* .

*This is partly due to the unique structure of the country’s equity market and the way stock price gyrations tend to reflect market liquidity and demand, not corporate value. The model does not take potential spillovers to other EM countries into account 

Detailed results  

Country Imports from US $m  Exports to US  $m Trade deficit $m GDP $ bn Deficit as % of GDP Exports as % of GDP MSCI Equity Index
% revenue exposure
to the US
MSCI Equity Index
% revenue exposure
to China
Trade war market
Impact indicator
(0-100)
Mexico 265,010 346,528 -81,517 1,220 -6.68% 28.40% 9.54% 1.14% 27.10
Taiwan 30,243 45,762 -15,519 586 -2.65% 7.81% 26.95% 21.36% 21.05
Switzerland 22,231 41,138 -18,908 703 -2.69% 5.85% 30.04% 7.75% 17.58
Germany 57,654 125,904 -68,250 4,000 -1.71% 3.15% 21.76% 8.48% 6.85
South Korea 56,344 74,291 -17,946 1,620 -1.11% 4.59% 13.49% 12.63% 6.19
United Kingdom 66,228 60,812 5,416 2,828 0.19% 2.15% 23.45% 10.63% 5.04
EU 318,619 487,916 -169,296 18,750 -0.90% 2.60% 18.29% 7.24% 4.76
Japan 74,967 142,596 -67,630 4,970 -1.36% 2.87% 14.08% 7.56% 4.04
France 36,326 52,522 -16,195 2,775 -0.58% 1.89% 19.16% 7.65% 3.63
Malaysia 12,865 39,384 -26,519 354 -7.49% 11.13% 3.05% 3.09% 3.40
India 33,120 54,407 -21,287 2,720 -0.78% 2.00% 13.04% 3.02% 2.61
Italy 23,153 54,722 -31,569 2,072 -1.52% 2.64% 9.16% 2.63% 2.42
Spain 12,976 17,241 -4,266 1,425 -0.30% 1.21% 11.70% 2.51% 1.42
Thailand 12,588 31,900 -19,312 487 -3.97% 6.55% 1.84% 2.19% 1.21
China 120,341 539,503 -419,162 13,400 -3.13% 4.03% 1.90% 93.51% 0.76
Brazil 39,494 31,161 8,333 1,868 0.45% 1.67% 4.50% 5.73% 0.75
Australia 25,306 10,126 15,181 1,420 1.07% 0.71% 9.42% 9.52% 0.67
Russia 6,668 20,795 -14,128 1,630 -0.87% 1.28% 4.11% 3.50% 0.52
Indonesia 8,226 20,870 -12,643 1,022 -1.24% 2.04% 0.28% 0.75% 0.06
USA 1,521,088 20,000 7.61% 62.38% 6.80% 28.61

Source: Trade data: US Census Bureau; GDP data: IMF; Economic exposure: MSCI, data as of end 2018. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Trade war market impact indicator: A high trade impact score points to a high exposure of the country’s to both the US and China and therefore indicates a higher vulnerability to trade disruptions and vice-versa.

1 The economic exposure of a company to a target region or country is the proportion of revenues derived from that region. MSCI estimates economic exposure from the geographic segment distribution of revenues by final markets/ destination as reported by a company and the GDP weight of the emerging market countries within that segment.


How to reduce your sensitivity to China

There are ways to mitigate the effects trade tensions could have on your EM portfolio. According to our analysis, replacing 20% of your global EM portfolio with a 20% allocation to MSCI India could help reduce the overall level of risk and create more return potential too. 

chart1

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Lyxor International Asset Management, data as at 12/06/2019.

Historical volatility calculated on 90 days daily returns. *sample period 31/12/2013 to 12/06/2019. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.


If like us, you believe India should have a greater weight in EM equity allocations, why not consider our MSCI India ETF? It is the best-performing ETF in this universe and comes with the lowest tracking error in Europe. 



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