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18 feb 2019

What’s next for European equities

After a troubled end to last year, and plenty of issues on the horizon, what’s next for European equities? Chanchal Samadder, Head of Equity Strategy at Lyxor ETF, shares his views.

Policy, politics and populism cloud the horizon, with large swathes of the electorate seemingly convinced that the euro project is part of the problem, not the solution. According to Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, our Chairman and a former ECB banker, some short-term caution is merited but it’s important to recognise threat and opportunity alike – and the region offers plenty of both. European assets are pricing in very little in the way of growth but we are actually cautiously optimistic about the outlook and believe sentiment could easily reverse should sentiment shift.

Confusion reigns

For now, confusion reigns and sentiment changes like the wind as recent ETF trends have demonstrated. Brexit continues to baffle, while France’s “Gilets jaunes” movement, Italy’s League and the Alternative for Germany are riding the populist wave. Globalisation and the European elite are in their sights. May’s European Parliament elections could have serious implications. Little wonder non-European investors have stayed away, despite it being one of the largest markets in the world.

Eurozone equities have been trading at around 12.0 x 12-months forward PE – 8.0% below their 20-yr median and around 23% lower than US valuations (data as of 31/01/2019). Until now though, the catalysts for change have been catatonic. Rousing them could take time, but more clarity on Brexit, a resolution to the rupture with Rome, an easing of trade tensions and signs of a recovery in growth are just a few of the factors which could spur a re-rating.

Although the rhetoric makes the risks seem skewed to the downside, economic conditions are in fact supportive. Accommodative monetary policy, budgetary policy easing, a firm labour market and concrete corporate investment should more than offset the negatives. The major factors behind the sluggish growth of late last year (disruptions in the automotive sector, the “Gilets jaunes”) were either one-offs or temporary, so they shouldn’t prove to be as much of a hindrance.

Bringing it home

More fundamentally, Bini Smaghi believes the answer is a stronger, better coordinated Europe – a Europe led by politicians capable of communicating with, and listening to, the people in the right way. Bringing non-European investors back will be a challenge but the opportunities are great if the region can reduce its dependence on exports, shift to a model of internal growth and reform more rapidly. The next wave of Europe’s growth could well come from within – which bodes well for mid-cap indices like the MDAX and CAC Mid-60 in time.

Ready for risk, open to opportunity

That said, we favour stability at this stage. Like Lorenzo, we prefer equities over bonds, but can’t ignore the short-term risks – hence our current preference for risk reducers including our unique minimum variance or quality income strategies.

At the country level, we prefer the DAX should trade tensions fade. We were less positive on France given the economic impact of the “Gilets jaunes” but those effects are now fading and it could be still be one of the main drivers of euro area growth in the quarters ahead. Recent fiscal concessions in particular could give personal consumption another boost. Switzerland, once again, may offer a bit of a haven. Periphery country balance sheets look weak and more exposed to any softening of growth, although Spain did at least prove resilient in Q4. Certainty on the Brexit outcome can’t be a bad thing, but sterling will bounce, to the detriment of exporters.

View our single country ETFs

We’ll be shifting our sector allocations into late-cycle corporates gradually, especially those capable of delivering robust earnings – which tend to be found in healthcare, oil & gas, financials and basic materials. You could consider utilities too and high dividend payers in general.  

For all that caution, it’s also important to look to the horizon and invest with the medium term in mind. We, like Lorenzo, are willing to seek out opportunity because we believe the economy will eventually pick up.

Discover our UCITS ETFs

Lyxor CAC 40 (DR)

Lyxor DAX (DR)

Lyxor Stoxx Europe 600 Healthcare

Lyxor EMU Minimum Variance

Lyxor SG European Quality Income

Source: All data, views & opinions Lyxor International Asset Management & MSCI as at 31 Jan 2019 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Risk Warning​

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

Except for the United-Kingdom, where this communication is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658, this communication is issued by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS (2014/91/EU) and AIFM (2011/61/EU) Directives. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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