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26 ott 2018

5 fixed income calls for Q4


Despite the current trade tensions, and the issues in Italy, there are enough positives to put us in the pro-risk camp and put bond investors firmly in a bind - unsure whether to switch out of conventional bonds and into other, more suitable assets or sit tight and hope for the best.

If you are going to hold conventional bonds, you have to believe economic conditions won’t improve; deflation will set in and central banks will keep trying to drive yields lower – an unlikely prospect in our view. The market tends to agree – year-to-date returns are negative for the first time in a decade. There are however ways to stay in bonds, but mitigate the damage.  Here are five things our experts believe you could do with your fixed income portfolio in Q4:

 

1. Soften the blow in the US

Solid growth and ongoing rate hikes have pushed 10-year treasury yields above 3.10%, the highest level since 2011. They could reach 3.4%+ over the next 12 months, driven on by inflation and growing term premia (i.e. the extra return demanded by bondholders to prefer long maturities to shorter ones) as the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks further. Risks include above-trend growth, higher inflation and lower demand. Rate hikes could yet accelerate.

At the very least, we’d suggest holding some short-dated assets maturities but we’d go further by looking towards inflation-linked bonds and floating rate bonds to hedge against inflation surprises and rising yields.

Lyxor Core iBoxx USD Treasuries 1-3Y (DR)

Lyxor $ Floating Rate Note

2. Be selective in Europe

After a 0.75% high earlier this year, 10-year bund yields have eased lower on softer growth data in core EMU, the political crisis in Italy and muted inflationary pressure. The ECB has committed to delay hikes until summer 2019 – we expect the first just prior to Mario Draghi’s retirement in October. For all that, the rupture with Rome can’t conceal signs of greater economic stability in the eurozone, so we still expect long-term yields to rise on bellwethers like the bund as ECB purchases fade. We prefer short maturity bonds. In the UK, Brexit-related uncertainty leaves us neutral at best on gilts. 

The EC’s rejection of the Italian government’s first draft of its new budget will pile more stress onto BTPs, and give some short-lived support to core European bonds. But these bonds are already overvalued and an amicable resolution may well be reached in time - reality will still set in. We favour peripheral bonds, including BTPs, over the long run as they come with carry. The wary might consider giving Italy a wide berth, but being brave and buying the dip might prove more rewarding.   

Lyxor BTP Daily (-2x) Inverse*

Lyxor EuroMTS 1-3Y Italy BTP Government Bond (DR)

Lyxor EuroMTS Highest Rated Macro-Weighted Govt Bonds (DR) 

3.Favour European breakevens over their US peers

Oil base effects should weigh on headline inflation in the short term, so we are neutral on eurozone inflation-linkers. We prefer inflation breakevens given the ECB’s intention to normalise policy, rather than be too fearful of the inflation risks. Breakevens have already been supported by oil price rises and higher nominal yields but linkers face the twin challenges of dwindling supply (particularly from France and Germany) and, crucially, dwindling demand from the ECB. Expect the approach of the ECB’s tightening cycle to add further momentum. 

        Lyxor EUR 2-10Y Inflation expectations  

 

4. Take a little credit

Credit returns may have been fairly disappointing this year, but we still prefer it to government bonds. This is no carte blanche call however. It’s time to exercise some caution and selectivity now that the catalysts for US high yield (the major bright spot in 2018) have waned somewhat. In the eurozone however, high yield bonds should outperform their investment-grade counterparts thanks to tight supply, decent earnings growth and the more stable economic backdrop – which should keep defaults low and conventional bond yields even lower.

        Lyxor BofAML EUR High Yield ex-Financial Bond

Lyxor BofAML EUR Short Term High Yield Bond  

 

Add some hard currency EM debt

Emerging market sovereign bond spreads have widened significantly since the beginning of the year but outflows have been contained by improved fundamentals and the limited risk of a sharp slowdown in Chinese activity. Looking ahead, EM sovereign debt should benefit from a softer US dollar and the lesser pace of Fed hikes in 2019. Higher oil prices could support issuers such as Mexico, Indonesia, Russia and Colombia. Hard currency EM credit spreads look attractive and have plenty of room to narrow.

Lyxor iBoxx USD Liquid Emerging Markets Sovereigns

Source: Lyxor’s Cross Asset Research team. All views & opinion as at 11 October 2018 unless otherwise stated. Past performance is no guide to future returns.

* Before deciding to use Short & Leveraged ETFs, there are some things you should know. Leveraged products amplify both gains and losses by a given leverage factor. Losses can therefore be substantial.  The performance of single short, double short and leveraged ETFs is calculated on a daily basis. This means there is a compounding effect as the daily return will always be based on the previous day's closing price. Compounding can lead to slippage over time between the index and the ETF. This slippage can be significant over periods longer than 1 business day, meaning these ETFs are typically unsuitable for investors planning to hold them for longer than one trading session unless used as part of a trading or hedging strategy.  Any positions in these ETFs should be monitored on an ongoing basis. We recommend investors carefully read the 'risk factor' section of the product's prospectus and Key Investor Information Document (KIID), available for download on www.lyxoretf.com

Conflicts of interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

Risk Warning

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “eligible counterparties” or “professional clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU.These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com. The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed. Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein. Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), société par actions simplifiée having its registered office at Tours Société Générale, 17 cours Valmy, 92800 Puteaux (France), 418 862 215 RCS Nanterre, is authorized and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) under the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EU) and the AIFM Directive (2011/31/EU). LIAM is represented in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

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